Dota 2 Betting Predictions for StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5

StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 is a Dota Pro Circuit Minor, having a prize pool of $300,000 and awarding a total of 300 qualification points for The International 2018. The event is organized by StarLadder in association with ImbaTV, has eight participating teams and is scheduled to take place in Kiev (Ukraine, Eastern Europe) between April 12th and April 15th.

Teams, Tournament Format and Prize Distribution
StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 features eight teams from a total of six regions:

Europe: Team Kinguin.
CIS: FlyToMoon, Natus Vincere, Vega Squadron.
South America: SG e-sports.
North America: OpTic Gaming.
China: VGJ.Thunder.
Southeast Asia: Fnatic.
For the Group Stage, the teams will be split into two groups of four.
Group A

OpTic Gaming
VGJ.Thunder
FlyToMoon
Team Kinguin
Group B

Fnatic
Vega Squadron
Natus Vincere
SG e-sports
Both groups will be played in a double-elimination bracket format. The second and first placed teams from each group advance to the Playoffs. Here, the rank 1 from Group A plays against rank 2 from Group B and vice versa. Until the Grand Final (Bo5), every match is a Bo3 series.

Because it belongs to the Dota Pro Circuit, StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 offers 300 qualification points in addition to its prize pool. The money and the points will be distributed among the 8 teams in the following way:

1st place: $135,000; 150 points
2nd place: $60,000; 90 points
3rd – 4th place: $30,000; 30 points
5th – 6th place: $15,000; 0 points
7th – 8th place: $7,500; 0 points
Betting Predictions
VGJ.Thunder vs. FlyToMoon
VGJ.Thunder
VGJ.Thunder is sitting at number 8 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings, having 1665 points. This is a very strong Chinese competitor and given that most of its usual opponents are missing from this event, it is likely that it will claim the title or at least qualify for the Grand Final. Overall, VGJ.Thunder has obtained two 2nd place finishes this season at Dota Pro Circuit LAN events. One of these tournaments was The Bucharest Major.

FlyToMoon
This team has been around for only two months and does not have a single notable result apart from some tournament qualifications. Even at this level of competition, which is considerably lower compared to that of Major tournaments, FlyToMoon has little to no chance of getting anything other than a 7th-8th place finish.

Prediction
This is a complete mismatch and will definitely end with a quick 2 – 0 victory in favor of VGJ.Thunder. Given that it’s a Bo3, there’s almost nothing that FlyToMoon can do to stop the Chinese juggernaut.
Bovada puts the odds for this match at -310 / +200 in favor of VGJ.Thunder, giving you spectacular returns for such a low-risk bet.

OpTic Gaming vs. Kinguin
OpTic Gaming
OpTic Gaming is the strongest team in North America, with the exception of Evil Geniuses. With more than 6 months of local and international experience, a great roster full of highly skilled individuals and a formidable captain (Peter “ppd” Dager, TI 5 champion with EG), OpTic Gaming is one of the main contenders at this event and should easily get a top 3 finish. I personally think they’re very likely to reach the Grand Final, but it remains to be seen.

Team Kinguin
Team Kinguin is a mediocre European squad with a few participations at Dota Pro Circuit events but no achievements so far. Given that StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 is a Minor event which for the most part, didn’t attract the interest of top teams, Team Kinguin might achieve a 5th-6th place result. But I don’t think they can climb higher than that.

Prediction
This might be a disputed match, but OpTic Gaming will almost certainly still be victorious in the end. Either a 2 – 0 or a 2 – 1 result in their favor is an extremely likely outcome for this encounter.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at -325 / +210 in favor of OpTic Gaming.

Vega Squadron vs. SG e-sports
Vega Squadron
Vega Squadron is a fairly strong team in the CIS region and in recent weeks has managed to beat tough opponents such as Team Empire, Natus Vincere and Team Spirit in the CIS qualifiers for various tournaments. The players on its roster aren’t very well known, but they’re all seasoned professionals and play reasonably well as a unit.

Vega Squadron has little chance of winning against top contenders like OpTic Gaming, Fnatic, and VGJ.Thunder, but has at least a 50% chance to emerge victorious against any other team. The most likely result for them at StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 is a 5th-6th place finish.

SG e-sports
No doubt, SG e-sports is one of the top South American teams. However, South America is by far the weakest region in Dota 2 of the 6 that are officially recognized, and the only one that doesn’t have a representative among the top 10 teams inside the Dota Pro Circuit rankings table. Like most of the other participants at this tournament, SG e-sports hasn’t had any notable results this season. And since the skill difference between South America and the other regions is so big, it’s likely that they will get either a 5th-6th or 7th-8th place finish at this event.

Prediction
Vega Squadron is slightly favored to win this match, but only by a little. So you should be cautious here and not take a huge risk.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at -175 / +120 in favor of Vega Squadron.

Fnatic vs. Natus Vincere
Fnatic
Fnatic desperately needs a title or at least a 2nd place finish at StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 if it wants to get back into top 8 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings table and obtain a direct invite for The International 2018. Right now, it’s sitting at number 11 with 884 points, so this type of competition is a perfect opportunity for a great result because it lacks top opposition for the most part. In terms of strength, Fnatic is the second-best team at this event and will likely reach the Grand Final if it can defeat either OpTic Gaming or VGJ.Thunder in the Semifinals (depending on who it will face at that point).

One thing to take note of is that Fnatic will be playing with their coach Adam at this tournament and not with “pieliedie”. This decision might have a significant impact on their game.

Natus Vincere
Following the departure of RodjER and SoNNeikO, Natus Vincere went on a downward spiral and is now an underdog in most of the tournaments participates in. At the moment, this famous CIS team is sitting at number 10 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings, having 1199 points. Just like Fnatic, Natus Vincere needs an excellent result at StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 if it wants to have a chance of getting a top 8 finish for the season and get a direct invite to The International 2018. Based on its recent performance, Na’Vi has little chance of getting more than a 3rd-4th place finishes at this event.

Prediction
Fnatic will be seeking revenge for its previous defeat against Na’Vi and will almost certainly going to get it. However, keep in mind that Fnatic will be playing with a substitute and this may affect their performance in a negative way.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at -250 / +170 in favor of Fnatic.

7 Roulette Variations You’ve Probably Never Heard Of

Roulette is a lot of fun, but after a while, it’s like anything else.

Boring.

Wouldn’t it be great if you could take something you’re familiar with and spice it up with some interesting differences?

That way you could enjoy the familiarity of a game you know how to play with the novelty of playing with some different rules.

As luck would have it, all kinds of variations of roulette are available.

You’re probably already familiar with the differences between American and European roulette.

In this post, I’m going to share 7 roulette variations you’ve probably never even heard of. I’ll include information about where you can play these games, too.

1. Alphabetic Roulette
Alphabetic Roulette (or “Alphabet Roulette”) is a variation that replaces the numbers you’re used to seeing on the wheel and the table with the letters of the alphabet. You have 25 possibilities for single letters, A through X. You also have a single possibility of getting Y or Z. (They occupy the same space on the wheel and on the table.)

The game also features 6 different colors—you’ll find 4 letters corresponding to each color. The YZ space isn’t colored. (Compare that to traditional roulette’s 00 and/or 0, which is green while all the other spaces are red or black.)

You can bet on individual letters, 2 letters, 3 letters, or 4 letters. You can also bet on certain combinations of letters that spell certain words, like the “Party Pit” bet, which is a bet on P, A, R, T, Y, or I. The “roulette” bet is like this, too, which is a bet on the following letters: R, O, U, L, E, or T. As in traditional roulette, you also have the option to bet on a certain color or on a column or a dozens bet.

The game has a 4% house edge, no matter which bet you place. Alphabet Roulette was launched in 2011 at Fitzgerald’s Casino in Las Vegas. It’s been approved by the Nevada Gaming Board, so it could turn up at any casino in the state.

Another variation of Alphabet Roulette uses playing cards with customized decks of 25 cards. You can read more about either variation at the official site for the game: http://www.alphabetroulette.com/.

2. Back 2 Back Roulette
I’ve also seen this referred to as “Back2Back Roulette” or just “Back to Back Roulette”. It’s a variation of roulette with an optional side bet on your lucky numbers. If a number hits twice in a row, you win 1200 to 1 on your bet.

This variation is available at the Atlantis Casino in Reno, Nevada.

3. Diamond Roulette
Diamond Roulette adds extra colors to the mix. Instead of just red and black (and green), a Diamond Roulette table has the following colors:

Red
Blue
Green
Yellow
Purple
Black
Each color corresponds to 6 numbers. Bets on a particular color pay out at 5 to 1. At a table with 2 zeroes, the player can also bet on a combination of a single color and the zeroes. This bet pays out at 3 to 1, but the house edge is huge—15.79%.

Of course, there are no even money red or black bets with this variation.

This variation of roulette can be found in Atlantic City casinos.

4. Double Action Roulette
“Double Action Roulette” really mixes things up. Instead of having a single wheel, this game has 2 wheels, one inside the other. The ball lands in a slot between the 2 wheels, resulting in 2 winning numbers per spin. You can bet on numbers in the outer wheel, the inner wheel, or both (a parlay).

Bets on a single wheel have the same kinds of payouts as traditional roulette, but the parlay bets have more interesting payouts. The single number parlay pays 1200 to 1. The other bets pay out between 3 to 1 and 25 to 1.

The house edge for the single wheel bets are the same as in traditional roulette games, but the parlay bets are sucker bets—the house edge is almost twice as high on those wagers.

This game is reportedly available at the M Casino in Las Vegas.

5. Double Ball Roulette
If a roulette game with 2 wheels doesn’t thrill you, maybe a game with 2 balls will. This game is almost identical to traditional roulette except for the extra ball in action.

If you place an outside bet, then both balls have to win for your bet to be a winner. On inside bets, either ball counts as a win. If both balls land on the inside bet, then the payout doubles.

The game also has a “Double Ball Jackpot”, which pays off when both balls land in the same individual numbered slot.

The house edge varies from bet to bet, but the best odds are the inside bets on single numbers. The house edge on that wager is 5.33%.

This game has been spotted at the Tropicana in Las Vegas.

6. Prime Time Roulette
This game features an optional side bet on the 11 prime numbers on the wheel. (A prime number is a number that can only be divided by itself an 1. In this case, those include 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, and 31.)

The bet pays out according to how many times in a row a prime number appears. If it lands on a number that’s not a prime number, the side bet is lost. The payout is even money for a single prime time, but it goes up to 299 to 1 if a prime number comes up 7 times in a row.

Payouts vary based on the version of the game you’re playing.

7. Rapid Roulette
Rapid Roulette plays just like regular roulette, but instead of placing chips on a table, you place your bets using an electronic interface. It’s fun, but it’s not quite the same feeling as the original game.

Conclusion
If you’re bored with regular roulette, look for some of these variations. The house edge is usually as high or higher, but the change in rules might be just the novelty you need to keep the game interesting.

How to Make a Million Dollars Playing Video Poker

I’ll level with you – if I knew some secret method for making a million dollars on video poker, I wouldn’t be blogging right now. I’d be in the Alaskan wilderness catching salmon or just sitting on my back porch cracking open a beer.

So how can you become a video poker millionaire? The truth is, there is no one secret method that will turn you into a video poker millionaire. I’m suspicious of “get-rich quick” ideas of any variety. As a general rule, the less work something requires, the less effective it is.

I can think of a few outside-the-box ways to put two commas in your bank account playing video poker:

You could win a million dollars playing progressive video poker. Of course, you’d have to win an unlikely number of progressive jackpots to total $1,000,000 – video poker progressive jackpots are considerably smaller than slot machines, resetting to between $500 and $1,500, and rarely paying off more than two or three times the reset amount. Don’t forget how rare progressive video poker games are – you won’t find a single progressive video poker game on the Vegas Strip or anywhere in Atlantic City.
You could sit around putting money in the machine until you hit an uncanny streak of luck. Let’s say you’re betting max, $5 per credit and $25 credits per hand. If you could string together enough $30 payouts in a row, you’d eventually win a million bucks. It would take 200,000 straight 6-credit wins (to offset the coast of each round’s maximum bet), and would certainly raise some eyebrows at the IRS, but I suppose it’s technically (given enough decimal places) “possible.”
You could have a really gnarly slip-and-fall accident while playing a video poker machine. If it’s found that the casino was negligent in inspecting and maintaining their property, you’ll be entitled to compensation, damages, and (in rare cases) a punitive award designed to teach the casino a lesson they won’t easily forget. It’s within the realm of possibility that you could win a million-dollar settlement. Of course, this is abuse of the system, and it would make you a horrible human being. It may backfire too – the court may throw the case out, especially if there is no evidence of negligence.
Those three ideas are pretty far outside the realm of possibility. Instead of slipping in a spilled drink, waiting for a mathematical miracle, or losing your shirt chasing progressives, I suggest a more level-headed approach.

The Three Basic Tenets of the Video Poker Millionaire
The three tenets listed below aren’t exactly secret. They’re freely-available all over the Internet. I can vouch for this fact, as I’ve written dozens of blog posts on these topics over the years.

Once you’ve learned how to play video poker, all you need to do to (one day) make a million bucks playing the game is follow these three simple rules:

Learn Basic Strategy
If you want to have fun in Vegas and don’t mind eventually giving your entire $100 bankroll to the casino, you don’t need to worry about strategy.

If your plan is to earn a million dollars from video poker, you have to become a graduate student of gambling. It helps if you have a good library near your home, since some of the books you’ll want to read aren’t all that available online. In fact, if you live near a state university with a decent research library, you’re a step ahead.

While you’re at it, subscribe to some gaming magazines. If you’re mostly going to gamble in Vegas, subscribe to some Vegas content, too. Join a couple of forums. Depending on where you live, you may be able to find seminars in your area teaching legitimate video poker and other game strategies. By the way, this isn’t something you can do once or twice a year for a couple of years and be done with it. With new games come new strategies, and with new casinos come new opportunities for advantage gambling. You’ll really need to become a lifelong student of gambling and game strategy.

Choose Player-Friendly Games
Unfortunately, the heyday of +EV video poker is long gone. You can still find a few high-paying titles that make a special trip to a specific casino or website worth your time. Specifically, there’s enough 10/7 Double Bonus and full-pay Deuces Wild on casino floors in the gambling Meccas of America to keep things interesting. If you are absolutely determined to earn a million bucks from video poker, you should probably stick to these titles only, since any other titles are going to retain too much of your money over time.

If you don’t mind gambling a little (or waiting a few extra years to earn your million), you can play some of the 99%+ titles that casinos still host. These are generally available whether you’re online, in Vegas, in Atlantic City, or elsewhere in the USA. The so-called Not So Ugly Deuces games (which we call 25/16/10) is popular and gives the casino a less than a quarter-percent edge, as do most casino’s versions 9/6 Jacks or Better, and the venerable 8/5 Bonus Poker with a return of around 99.1%.

Casinos love to put sub-99% video poker games immediately next to identical games set high. This is especially true in the few casinos where you still find full-pay titles. This means you absolutely have to inspect every pay table before you play.

Manage Your Money (and Earn Comps)
The kind of dedication it takes to become a gambling millionaire means that it shouldn’t be hard for you to rigorously control how much you spend on video poker. But since you should always bet maximum, your wager size and scope are pretty limited. Instead of worrying about bet sizing, focus on earning those crucial additional benefits casinos give their loyal customers. That means joining the players club, exchanging club points for cash, scoring multiple-points promos, entering raffles and drawings, playing in video poker tournaments, remembering to mail in those bounce-back rewards clipping coupons, and doing all those annoying things that tend to make a casino trip less fun.

In exchange for a little bit of what always feels like wasted time, you’re putting a big dent in the casino’s edge. If you’re already playing +EV games, using comps basically extends your tiny edge. Not a statistically-significant amount at first, but over time, it makes a big difference.

Conclusion
I’m at the end of the post, and I have this nagging question at the back of my mind. Is this even possible?

I did some math – always a dangerous proposition – and came up with some interesting figures about this hands-off method of becoming a millionaire on Jacks or Better. To earn $1,000,000 playing 10/7 Double Bonus (which gives you about a 0.17% return per hour, when playing with perfect strategy), you’d have to play for 294,117 hours. That’s assuming you can play 80 hands an hour perfectly, making no strategic mistakes at all. That works out to about 100 years of playing the same game for eight hours a day.

Having said that, you could always form a partnership with other players working towards a common goal – but then, you’re not really a millionaire, are you?

All told, I think it’s an interesting question to answer and a good teachable moment. I am sure that someone out there has earned a million bucks (or even more) playing video poker, but they’re probably some sort of outlier, with an uncanny ability to play long-term and the best-odds games making very few mistakes. It’s also possible that a person would earn a million bucks worth of comps given enough time and enough loyalty at the right casino.